Using data from more than 50 countries, researchers have created a model to assess how an attempt to achieve the global climate goal of the Paris Agreement would affect employment in the energy sector.
Measures to contain the rise in temperatures well below 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels would increase net jobs globally by about 8 million by 2050 , mainly due to gains in the solar and wind industries. ‘One Earth’ magazine.
“Currently, an estimated 18 million people work in the energy sector, a figure that will probably increase, and not decrease, to 26 million, that is, more than 50%, if we reach our global climate goals,” he says. corresponding author Johannes Emmerling environmental economist at the RFF-CMCC European Institute of Economics and Environment, in Italy – The manufacture and installation of renewable energy sources could become a third of all these jobs , for which countries they can also compete in terms of location. “
The study by Emmerling and his colleagues is the first based on a large data set from more than 50 countries , including the major fossil fuel-producing economies. The team combined this dataset with an integrated assessment model to make employment projections.
The model helps to see how the development of human beings and the decisions that societies make affect each other . Most of the previous analyzes were based on employment data from OECD countries and generalized the results to the rest of the world using a multiplier. Meeting Climate Targets Of Paris Agreement Mark1837 Would Create 8 Million Jobs.
“The energy transition is increasingly being studied with very detailed models, spatial resolutions, time scales and technological details – explains Emmerling -. However, the human dimension, access to energy, poverty and also the distributional implications and employment are often viewed at a high level of detail. We have helped fill this gap by collecting and applying a broad set of data from many countries and technologies that can also be used in other applications. “
In the researcher’s model, of the total jobs in 2050, 84% would correspond to the renewable sector , 11% to fossil fuels and 5% to nuclear energy. While jobs in fossil fuel extraction, which make up 80% of today’s, would decline rapidly, these losses would be offset by rising jobs in solar and wind power manufacturing.
“Jobs in the extractive sector are more susceptible to decarbonisation, so there need to be just transition policies,” says first author Sandeep Pai, who just graduated with a PhD in Resources, Environment and Sustainability. at the University of British Columbia.
“For example, the mobility of jobs in manufacturing will be useful in areas where decarbonisation is widespread,” he adds. “In many cases, workers in the fossil fuel sector also have political influence. because of their track record and high unionization rates, among other things, so as we move toward low-carbon sources, it’s important to have a plan for the overall acceptability of climate policies. “
The researcher’s next goal is to explore the changes in skill levels, education requirements, and salaries that can result from trying to meet the global climate goal of the Paris Agreement. They also envision that by being accessible to all these different groups around the world, it will inspire other data analysts to use it to run multiple scenarios, further clarifying the scope of jobs.